Estimating the impact of a health tax on the demand for unhealthy food and beverages and on tax revenue in India

Foods high in fat, sugar, or salt are important contributors to the rising burden of non-communicable diseases globally and in India. Health taxes have been used by over 70 countries as an effective tool for reducing consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, the potential impacts of health taxes on consumption and on revenues have not been estimated in India. This paper aims to estimate the potential impact of health taxes on the demand for sugar, SSBs, and foods high in fat, sugar, or salt (HFSS) in India while exploring its impact on tax revenues. Price elasticity (PE) of sugar was estimated using Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Consumer Price Index data while price elasticities for SSBs and HFSS were obtained from literature. The reduction in demand was estimated for an additional 10% to 30% health tax added to the current goods and services tax (GST), for varying levels of price elasticities. The results show that for manufacturers of sweets and confectionaries who buy sugar in bulk and assuming a higher price elasticity of -0.70, 20% additional health tax (total tax 48%) would result in 13% to 18% decrease in the demand for sugar used for confectionaries and sweets. For SSBs, health tax (HT) of 10% to 30% would result in 7% to 30% decline in the demand of SSBs. For HFSS food products, 10% to 30% health tax would result in 5% to 24% decline in the demand for HFSS products. These additional taxes would increase tax revenues for the government by 12% to 200% across different scenarios. Taxing unhealthy foods is likely to reduce demand, whilst increasing government revenues for reinvestment back into public health programs and policies that may reduce obesity and the incidence of noncommunicable diseases in India.